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August 2024 Kursk Oblast incursion

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August 2024 Kursk Oblast incursion
Part of attacks in Russia during the Russian invasion of Ukraine
Date6 August 2024 – present
(1 week)
Location
Kursk Oblast and Belgorod Oblast,[1] Russia
Result Ongoing
Belligerents
 Ukraine  Russia
Commanders and leaders
Ukraine Volodymyr Artyukh[citation needed] Alexander Bortnikov[2]
Apti Alaudinov[3]
Units involved
See order of battle See order of battle
Strength

Russian claim:
300 soldiers (6 August 2024)
11 tanks
20+ AFVs[4]
1,000 soldiers[5][6] (7 August 2024)

Western estimate:
10,000 soldiers and 600 armored vehicles[7] (9 August 2024)		 Unknown
Casualties and losses
Several armored vehicles[8]
1 Buk-M1 SAM system[8][9]
Per Russia:
1,350 casualties[10]
102 armored vehicles[11][12] (tanks, IFVs, APCs)[13]
26 UAVs[14]
55 surrendered[12]		 2 T-62M tanks[9]
2 Ka-52 helicopters[9][15][16]
1 Mi-28 helicopter[17]
40+ soldiers captured[18][8]
6 civilians killed,[19]
31 civilians injured[8][20][21]
76,000+ civilians evacuated[22]

On 6 August 2024, during the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War, the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) launched an incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast and clashed with the Russian Armed Forces and Russian border guard.[23][24][25] According to Russia, at least 1,000 troops crossed the border, supported by tanks and armored vehicles.[26] The Institute for the Study of War said Ukrainian forces had advanced 10 kilometres (6.2 mi) into Kursk Oblast within two days, and had taken control of several settlements in Sudzhansky District.[27] A state of emergency was declared in Kursk Oblast,[26] and Russian reserves were rushed to the area.[27] On 9 August, Russia announced a "counter-terrorism operation" in Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk Oblasts.[28][29]

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began in 2022, there had been several smaller incursions into Russia by pro-Ukrainian forces.[21] Ukraine had supported these ground incursions, but denied direct involvement.[27] The Kursk incursion surprised both Russia and Ukraine's allies.[27] It was the most significant attack across the border since the 2022 invasion[30] and the first carried out primarily by Ukrainian regular forces.

Background

This paragraph is an excerpt from Attacks in Russia during the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[edit]
There have been attacks in mainland Russia as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which began on 24 February 2022. The main targets have been the military, the arms industry and the oil industry. Many of the attacks have been drone strikes, firebombing, and rail sabotage. The Ukrainian intelligence services have acknowledged carrying out some of these attacks. Others have been carried out by anti-war activists in Russia. There has also been cross-border shelling, missile strikes and ground raids from Ukraine, mainly in the Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk oblasts. Several times, pro-Ukrainian forces have launched incursions from Ukraine into Russia, captured border villages and battled the Russian military. While Ukraine has supported these ground incursions, it has denied direct involvement.

Timeline

6 August

On 6 August 2024, Russia reportedly deployed air and artillery forces to counter a Ukrainian border incursion in Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian fighters, equipped with tanks and armored vehicles, crossed into Russian territory. The Russian Ministry of Defense responded by sending troops and aviation units to the area. According to Russia, the incursion involved around 300 Ukrainian troops, 11 tanks, and over 20 armored combat vehicles,[4] and was aimed in two directions: at Oleshnya in the direction of Sudzha, east-northeast of Sumy, and towards Nikolayevo-Darino, north-northeast of Sumy.[31] It was reported that Chechen Akhmat battalions were responding to the raids.[31]

The attack began at 08:00 MSK. A statement by Russian forces on Telegram at around 18:20, claiming that they had pushed the Ukrainians back across the border, and inflicted significant losses through artillery, air strikes, and drones, was later edited by them to imply fighting was ongoing. Moscow released videos purportedly showing Ukrainian tanks being targeted from the air. Social media footage suggested Russian warplanes operated at low altitudes over Kursk Oblast to repel the attack. Alexei Smirnov, acting governor of Kursk Oblast, reported that three people died during the events: a woman in the border incursion and two individuals in separate drone attacks.[32] Russian milbloggers also largely dismissed the supposed raids as "unsuccessful" and a "media stunt".[31]

Russian milbloggers claimed that the offensive was being performed by the Russian Volunteer Corps (RVC), while the New Voice of Ukraine citing a source in Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence reported that the RVC was not present.[31] The RVC's ally, the Freedom of Russia Legion, which accompanied the RVC in a raid earlier in the year refused to comment if they were participating.[31]

7 August

1943 Ukrainian railway map shows Sudzha in quadrant A2 at km 60 on the Lgov–Gotnya–Zolochiv main line to Kharkiv

On 7 August, Russian forces continued attempts to push back Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast. A milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces had captured 11 settlements and had advanced 14 kilometres (9 mi) deep into the oblast.[33] Government agencies were ordered by President Vladimir Putin to "provide the needed assistance to residents", and deputy prime minister Denis Manturov was sent to oversee their work.[34] Alexei Smirnov, the acting governor of Kursk Oblast, declared a state of emergency in the region,[35][36][37] and Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova protested about "The criminal Kiev regime" and said that "All this only reinforces the sense of impunity of Ukrainian neo-Nazis."[38] Putin met with key members of the security establishment including Valery Gerasimov, Alexander Bortnikov, Sergei Shoigu and Andrey Belousov on the Kursk incursion.[39]

Geolocated footage confirmed that Ukrainian forces had advanced at least 10 kilometres (6.2 mi) into the Russian border, having penetrated at least two Russian defensive lines and a stronghold. Russian sources indicated that Ukrainian forces are trying to advance along the 38K-030 Sudzha-Korenevo highway, and a prominent Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that by 18:00 local time on 7 August, Ukrainian forces had advanced both northwest and southeast along the highway and were now fighting on the outskirts of Korenevo and Sudzha. Additionally, geolocated footage showed four Ukrainian personnel capturing at least 40 Russian POWs, as well as fighting within city limits of Sudzha, with Ukrainian forces capturing a gas-station and the entry check-point. The previous day, 35 Russian servicemen were claimed to have been captured by Ukrainian forces after failing to prevent a breakthrough. Meanwhile, a Ukrainian lieutenant, callsign "Alex", claimed that 300 Russians soldiers were captured in the "Kursk People's Republic" during two days, reportedly "conducted by a contingent of unidentified armed formations". He added that he hoped they would be handed over to his unit.[18][40]

Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Goncharenko reported that Ukrainian forces had captured the Sudzha gas hub which feeds the Urengoy–Pomary–Uzhhorod pipeline into the rest of Europe. Additionally, there were reports of fighting in Ivnitsa [ru; uk], a village 24 km (15 mi) from the border.[41]

8 August

RIA Novosti reported that four people died as a result of 'attacks' by the AFU in the oblast[42] as fighting continued for a third day.[43][44] Russian milblogger Yuri Podolyaka said that "Sudzha is basically lost to us" and that Ukrainian forces were pushing towards Lgov.[45]

Ukrainian forces were in control of the western part of Sudzha and the surrounding roads; skirmishes continued in the town.[46]

According to Smirnov, the governor of Kursk, six Ukrainian drones and five missiles were shot down during the night and morning.[47]

Reports claimed that the combat zone had expanded to 430 square kilometers, and claimed that Ukrainian forces entered the settlement of Mirny [ru; uk] and had taken control of the villages of Kazachya Loknya [ru; uk], Bogdanovka [ru; uk], 1st Knyazhiy [ru; uk] and 2nd Knyazhiy [ru; uk]. Skirmishes took place in the village of Snagost [ru; uk].[48] Ukrainian troops were present in areas 35 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.[49]

9 August

Reports claimed that Ukrainian troops had captured around 100[50]–200 square kilometers of territory, at a depth of around 10 kilometers on average.[51] Based on independent and own analyses, CNN put the area of territory over which Russia had lost control at 250 square kilometers at least.[52]

A convoy of Russian troops was reportedly destroyed in a HIMARS strike in the village of Oktyabrskoye while moving along the route connecting Glushkovsky District and Kursk and passing through Rylsky and Lgovsky districts. Footage of the aftermath showed 15 burned military trucks, with some bodies inside.[11] According to the Ukrainian analyst group NEXTA, "each of these trucks can carry up to 35 fully equipped soldiers. The video shows 14 destroyed vehicles, which suggests that the Russian army could have lost between 200 and 490 soldiers in one night as a result of the strike... This could become one of the largest one-time losses for the Russian army since the beginning of a full-scale war".[53][54][55][56] A Russian Telegram channel wrote: "Judging by the appearance of the column, about half were killed. This is one of the bloodiest and most massive strikes (most likely Himars) in the entire war."[57]

Apti Alaudinov, the commander of the Chechen Akhmat units that had been stationed in Belgorod and Kursk since the last incursion, informed Russian media that he and his forces did not engage Ukrainian troops as they passed their positions, instead opting to retreat until more Russian reinforcements could arrive, while some Russian milbloggers claimed they fled from the battle.[58][59][3] Additionally, Alaudinov has so far been the only Russian commander to admit that Ukrainian forces are in control of settlements along the border.[3]

In anticipation of Russian airstrikes, 20,000 people were ordered to evacuate from Sumy Oblast. Russian reinforcements, many of which were units already deployed around the Russia–Ukraine border,[60] continued to arrive near the frontline in Kursk Oblast, where fighting persisted over Sudzha.[61][62][60] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russia seized the border village of Lukashivka [uk] in Sumy Oblast, while Ukraine reportedly made a minor incursion in a new direction, directed at the border village of Kucherov, but did not capture it.[60]

The Russian MOD published a report on the transfer of a military column from the Belgorod Oblast to the Sudzhansky District, which included 152-mm self-propelled "Msta-S" artillery pieces and combat support vehicles.[63] Combat markings showed that Russian command was transferring battle hardened troops to Kursk Oblast as reinforcement.[64]

The head of the Kurchatov municipal administration, Igor Korpunkov, reported that the fighting was taking place 30 kilometers from Kursk Nuclear Power Plant.[65][66] Authorities blocked all access to the nuclear plant, construction workers at the site left the area, and equipment at the plant was deenergized. Rosatom announced a temporary reduction in the number of personnel at the site. Around 15:00, an explosion was heard in Kurchatov. Russian NBC Protection Troops were also deployed to protect the plant.[67]

Governor of Kursk Oblast Alexey Smirnov reported that a fire started in one of the districts as a result of an attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on a transformer substation. As a result of the UAV attack, Kurchatov, as well as parts of the Kurchatovsky, Oktyabrsky, Bolshesoldatsky, Oboyansky and Belovsky districts, were left without power supply.[68]

According to the spokesman of the Ukrainian Volunteer Army "South" Serhiy Bratchuk, the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to seize the ammunition depots in Sudzha.[69][70]

By 9 August, Russian forces had retaken the village of Snagost, and in the north had pushed Ukraine back to the northern village of Malaya Loknya back from Ukraine's positions in Milyutino and Generalovka.[60] The number of Ukrainian troops in Kursk Oblast was estimated by CEIP senior fellow Dara Massicot to be around 10,000–12,000, containing elements from four to five Ukrainian brigades.[71]

A counter-terrorism operational regime under the FSB was introduced in Kursk, Bryansk and Belgorod Oblasts to temporarily take control of the regions till the conditions return to normalcy.[72][73] This means in practice that "movement is restricted, vehicles can be seized, phone calls can be monitored, areas are declared no-go zones, checkpoints introduced, and security is beefed up at key infrastructure sites."[29] Alexander Bortnikov, director of the Federal Security Service, was placed at the head of these counter-terrorism operations.[2]

10 August

Ukrainian troops launched a minor incursion in Belgorod Oblast with the 252nd Battalion taking part in clashes in the village of Poroz, Graivoronsky District and later claiming to have captured it.[74][75][76]

According to analysts cited by the The New York Times, the Ukrainian advance in Kursk Oblast had largely been stopped by Russian reinforcements at this point, and the situation stabilized, but Ukrainian forces continued to hold on to their captured territory.[77] Conversely, other sources such as the Washington Post and Frankfurter Rundschau reported that Russia remained unable to control the situation, with continued Ukrainian advances.[76][78] The Russian Ministry of Defense made similar claims that they had stopped any Ukrainian advances in Kursk Oblast.[79]

Battles were reported in Olgovka near Korenevo, the Ivashkovskoye farmstead, and Malaya Loknya.[80]

The Russian Armed Forces claimed to have regained control of the village of Makhnovka east of Sudzha.[81] Reports claimed that the combat zone had expanded to 650 km2 (250 sq mi).[82]

In the evening, Alexei Smirnov said that 15 people were injured in Kursk city after the wreckage of an intercepted Ukrainian missile fell onto a residential area.[22]

11 August

In its morning report, the Russian Defense Ministry announced the destruction of four Tochka-U tactical missiles and 14 drones in the skies over Kursk Oblast overnight.[83]

On the night of August 11, the Ukrainian Armed Forces entered the Belovsky District, located southeast of the Sudzhansky District, which was confirmed by the head of the district and the acting governor. The head of the district recommended that those who had already evacuated not to return.[84]

Proekt claimed that the combat zone had increased to 720 km².[85]

12 August

On 12 August 2024, evacuation of the civilian population from the Krasnoyaruzhsky District was begun by Russian authorities as a result of the widening Ukrainian incursion. Krasnoyaruzsky, in Belgorod oblast, is adjacent and the first region to the south of Kursk oblast on the border with Ukraine.[86]

Lipetsk Oblast

On August 9 at about 03:00, Lipetsk-2 airfield in Lipetsk Oblast neighboring Kursk was attacked by a UAV, and residents published videos of a powerful explosion. A state of emergency was declared, and four villages were evacuated. According to Ukraine, at the time of the attack, there were 700 guided aerial bombs and Russian military aircraft at the airfield, and UAVs hit warehouses with guided aerial bombs and a number of other objects in the area of the airfield. At least six people were injured in the attack.[87][88]

Belgorod Oblast

On 9 August, Russian authorities said that one person was killed in an aerial attack on the border village of Shebekino which also injured two people and damaged nine apartment buildings, 18 houses and 10 vehicles.[89] On the morning of 10 August, Z-publics, as well as Ukrainian military Telegram channels, reported that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had managed to take control of the village of Poroz in Belgorod Oblast.[76][90]

Belarusian–Ukrainian border

On August 10, Belarus announced the transfer of an Iskander missile, Polonez MLRS and special forces to areas bordering Ukraine. This announcement followed the words of the country's president Alexander Lukashenko about Ukrainian attack drones shot down over the country's territory. The head of the Center for Combating Disinformation of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine (NSDC) Andriy Kovalenko interpreted these actions by Minsk as an attempt to help Russia and distract the attention of the Ukrainian command to the Belarusian direction.[91]

On 11 August, the Belarusian Defense Ministry announced that it was moving its tanks to the border with Ukraine to reinforce the troop grouping there.[92]

Reactions

Russia

The Russian Ministry of Defence initially claimed on 6 August that the attack had been repelled. The ministry stated, "After suffering losses, the Ukrainian sabotage group retreated to its territory, while some of the fighters attempted to establish a position on the territory adjacent to the state border, where they were blocked by Russian army units."[93][94] President Vladimir Putin described the AFU's incursion into Kursk Oblast as a "large-scale provocation." He accused the "Kyiv regime" of "indiscriminately firing various types of weapons, including missiles, at civilian buildings, houses, and ambulances." Putin stated that he plans to meet with the heads of the security agencies, the Defense Ministry, and the Federal Security Service (FSB).[33][8]

Former President and deputy chairman of the Security Council of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, issued a statement that the incursion made it so "This [war] is no longer just an operation to retake our official territories and punish the Nazis. It is possible and necessary to go to the lands of the still existing Ukraine. To Odesa, to Kharkiv, to Dnipropetrovsk, to Mykolaiv. To Kyiv and beyond," and that "The current military campaign will also end in Russia's unconditional victory."[41]

After a HIMARS strike reportedly destroyed a Russian battalion on the night of 8–9 August, numerous Russian milbloggers responded with outrage. Many of them called for the commanders who authorized the movement of the column to be punished, such as Russian military analyst Roman Alekhine wrote that "we need executions". Meanwhile, "The Two Majors" blog wrote that "whoever gave the order to move in columns in the area... should be sentenced under the laws of war". The channel "Thirteenth", which has ties to the Wagner Group, called those responsible "brainless creatures". "In the third year of the war, even a monkey could be trained, but not some [Russian] Ministry of Defense staff general who gave the orders for such a suicidal march in the frontline zone".[95]

On August 11, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stated "The Kyiv regime is continuing its terrorist activity with the sole purpose of intimidating the peaceful population of Russia" and that the incursion "make no sense from a military point of view." [96]

Ukraine

The head of Ukraine's Center for Countering Disinformation, Andriy Kovalenko, refuted Russian claims that the situation at the border was under control on 6 August, stating, "Russia does not control the border."[97]

The first statement on behalf of Ukraine, issued by president Volodymyr Zelenskyy's advisor Mykhailo Podolyak, did not acknowledge any role by Kyiv but portrayed the incursion as the Russian populace rising against Vladimir Putin. Podolyak said the attacks "provide an opportunity to see how ordinary Russians relate to the current authorities in Russia" but that Russians would not "come out with flowers to greet the anti-Putin tanks" due to the public support for the war.[98]

The first acknowledgement by Ukraine that its forces were fighting in the incursion came from Zelenskyy in his evening address of 10 August 2024,[99] after oblique remarks by him on 8 August, when he said that "Russia brought the war to our land and should feel what it has done",[100] and 9 August, when he praised the Ukrainian army for the "replenishment of the exchange fund", in what was seen as a reference for taking Russian POWs to be released in future prisoner exchanges.[66]

United States

The White House said that it was seeking an understanding from Ukraine regarding the incursion, adding that it had had no advance knowledge of the attack.[101] On 8 August, Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh stated that the incursion is consistent with the US policy on the use of weapons.[102]

Germany

Chair of the Bundestag's Defence Committee Marcus Faber told German media in the first few days of the incursion that Ukraine was free to use "all materials" provided, including Leopard 2 deliveries.[102] He tweeted on 11 August claiming that the incursion forced Russia to move forces from the front in the east, reducing the pressure there and that this provided an occasion to discuss further Leopard 2 deliveries.[103] He went on to claim that the incursion shows Russia's population that Putin and the military leadership do not have things under control and that this provides a good foundation for peace negotiations with Putin's successor and for negotiations with Putin before the International Criminal Court.[104]

China

China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said all parties should "observe the three principles for deescalating the situation, namely no expansion of the battlefield, no escalation of fighting and no fueling the flame by any party", added that Beijing will continue to maintain contact with the international community and play a constructive role in promoting a political settlement of the "Ukrainian crisis".[105][106]

Organisations

Following reports on 10 August of fighting near the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant, the head of the international Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, called on Russia and Ukraine to exercise "maximum restraint" to avoid a nuclear accident.[107]

Analysis

The August 2024 incursion is larger than earlier ground raids, with at least two brigades from the regular Ukrainian forces participating. These forces are mechanized, highly mobile and protected by significant air defense. The incursion appears to have taken Russia by surprise. The Institute for the Study of War reports that, according to Russian sources the Ukrainians use "novel and innovative tactics" and that small armored units bypass Russian defenses, strike in the rear and then withdraw.[49] Forbes reported a "new style of warfare" where the first step is to neutralize Russian drones with physical attacks and jamming which also affect radio communication. Then high-precision drones, working in swarms, attack Russian forces. Last, Ukrainan troops move in to secure the trenches, the radio jammers are brought forward and the cycle repeats. [108]

The Ukrainian surprise offensive in the Russian border region of Kursk suggests an attempt to shift the momentum against Russia. This action, not officially confirmed by Ukrainian leaders, has drawn criticism from analysts who question the strategic wisdom of deploying already strained troops on Russian territory.[109]

A significant challenge for Ukraine has been responding to Russia's strategy of expanding the front line, particularly with intensified fighting around Kharkiv. According to Rob Lee, a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute's Eurasia program, this offensive has further stretched Ukraine's forces, reducing their reserves to counter Russian advances towards Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and Toretsk.[109] On August 10, Ukraine said it had recorded the lowest number of "combat engagements" on its territory since June 10, which some observers considered as a sign that the incursion had brought relief to Ukrainian forces.[66]

Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), said that the Ukrainian incursion into Russia was "the first on this scale with conventional forces, rather than proxies [or] 'resistance' groups." He also assessed that earlier raids into Kursk and Belgorod were designed to probe for Russian weak spots, and that the overall goal of the raid is to dismantle Russia's ability to funnel more troops into the Kharkiv front and that "It's unlikely that the plan is to seriously take Kursk itself, or to try and hold vast swathes of Russian territory."[41]

Nico Lange, former chief of staff at Germany's Defense Ministry, stated that the incursion was likely "to establish a negotiating position and provide relief on other front lines" and that it is unlikely that Ukrainian forces would hold territory in Kursk for long periods of time.[41]

Retired Polish General and former commander of special forces, Roman Polko, stated that "It's good that Ukraine is taking actions that surprise the Russians," and that "Ukraine is in a defensive position and is unable to conduct an operation to push Russia from the occupied regions, but Ukraine is defending itself in an active way," and that "One can't allow the Russians to comfortably prepare new attacks."[41]

Impact

The attack reportedly pushed up gas prices to €40 (+5%) per megawatt-hour in Europe,[110] while YouTube and phone networks experienced outages in Russia.[111][112][113]

The transit of Russian gas through the Ukrainian gas transportation system decreased to 37.25 million cubic metres per day from the usual 42–42.4 million cubic metres.[114]

At least 76,000 civilians in Russia were displaced by the fighting.[22]

Casualties

Russia claimed that six Ukrainian tanks and ten armored vehicles were lost in the initial engagement on 6 August.[4][115][116] Acting governor of Kursk Oblast, Alexei Smirnov, claimed that 26 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down in the area.[14] Russia later claimed on 9 August, that Ukraine had losses of 945 soldiers and 102 armored vehicles, although this could not be verified.[11] Ukraine claimed their forces had shot down a Mi-28 and two Ka-52[15][16] helicopters.[17]

The Russian state broadcaster Rossiya-24 announced that one of its reporters, Yevgeny Poddubny, was injured in a drone attack on his vehicle while reporting on the fighting in the affected areas on 7 August.[117] Russian authorities said that at least six civilians had been killed since the start of the incursion, while at least 66 others, including nine children, were injured.[118]

Order of battle

Russia

Wagner Group[124]

Ukraine

See also

References

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